The major factor underpinning CREA’s long-standing forecast for higher activity going forward is the idea that pent-up demand, particularly from first-time home buyers, would start to emerge from the sidelines after having been shut out of the market over the past four years. An important milestone for that process is the expectation that interest rates will no longer fall, and that home prices in affected parts of the country have stopped declining.
That said, beginning in the second half of March, inflation from the spike in oil prices raised the odds of a Bank of Canada rate hike later this year, raising bond yields and resulting in a jump in fixed-rate mortgages. Higher mortgage rates are expected to curtail activity on their own, but the idea that the oil shock may be short lived will likely also cause many buyers to wait for rates to come back down, further dampening activity at the most active time of the year for housing markets... [READ MORE]
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