Momentum expected to return to Canada's housing market this spring, tempered by economic anxiety and cautious buyers

• By Teri Shaw
• Posted Monday, Jan 19, 2026 2:06 pm

Momentum expected to return to Canada's housing market this spring, tempered by economic anxiety and cautious buyers

TORONTO, January 15, 2026 – While there is optimism for a rebound in the coming months, the Canadian housing market closed out the year with a slight decline. According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast released today, the aggregate price of a home in Canada decreased 1.5 per cent year over year to $807,200 in the fourth quarter of 2025. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price posted a similar decline of 1.1 per cent, reflecting softer market conditions and persistent buyer caution that weighed on activity during the traditionally active fall season.

“Despite subdued activity levels, home prices largely held their ground in the final quarter of 2025,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Economic uncertainty – driven by trade disputes and broader geopolitical tensions – has weighed on consumer confidence and muted what is typically a more active fall market. Instead of a fall seasonal surge, we saw a quieter close to the year.

“That said, buyers heading into the spring market have a meaningful advantage over last year: lower borrowing costs, stable or lower property prices, and choice. In an era where home inventory is chronically constrained, inventory levels are Goldilocks healthy. Together, these conditions are creating a genuine window of opportunity, particularly for first-time buyers in Canada’s most expensive markets.”

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 64 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home decreased modestly by 0.8 per cent year over year to $849,100, while the median price of a condominium decreased 2.9 per cent to $575,300. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home and a condominium declined 1.3 per cent and 0.9 per cent, respectively. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

Among Canada’s major cities, the most pronounced price declines were concentrated in the most expensive metropolitan markets – Toronto and Vancouver – where aggregate home prices fell 5.7 per cent and 4.1 per cent year over year, respectively, in the fourth quarter [READ MORE]